Supply Gap Expands Gradually---Aluminum Price Might Rise More

Recently, the sharp rise of aluminum price has brought a lot of pressure to the downstream enterprises in the industrial chain. For the enterprises with less aluminum ingot inventory backlog, they are faced with great pressure both in taking and shipping.

Looking at the overall industry situation, the whole social inventory has reached the peak of off-season accumulation from mid March, about 1.25 million tons. This is at the low level of accumulation of aluminum ingots in off-season for many years, and the mode of removing aluminum ingots from storage is gradually opened. After entering the peak season, the inventory will gradually enter the warming mode. The soaring aluminum price will also drive the whole international market to suffer a new round of reshuffle. As the world's largest aluminum supplier, China's aluminum production policy will have a certain impact on the world.

The price impact on the aluminum industry, on the one hand, is due to China's efforts to achieve the goal of carbon neutrality. To achieve this goal before the planning date, we must take meaningful measures to control carbon emissions from now on. And the aluminum production enterprise is one of the enterprises highly dependent on coal-fired power generation. As a result, the expansion of aluminum production will gradually slow down and the production capacity will gradually decline, thus reducing the demand for world aluminum supply.

As a large aluminum industry country, China has mobilized aluminum industry policies and reduced the output of China's aluminum industry. This move is bound to have a certain impact on the world aluminum market to a certain extent. On the other hand, affected by the global epidemic, the price of aluminum has a certain relationship with the economic recovery of all countries in the world. The increasing demand for aluminum and other non-ferrous metal raw materials in various countries has gradually caused the phenomenon of short supply in the world market.

Looking forward to the second quarter, we believe that domestic aluminum demand will still improve seasonally. At the same time, with the launch of vaccination and economic stimulus plan, overseas demand will also rise simultaneously.

It is expected that domestic inventory will continue to be removed in the second quarter, the supply gap will gradually expand in the future, the aluminum price will be easy to rise but difficult to fall, and the price focus will continue to move up.